but avoiding the fiscal cliff is really not the goal here. cutting the deficit is. this is a case of gigantic political friendly fire in my view. we're targeting the wrong enemy. we should be targeting the deficit. >> i've read, dan, more carefully and it's extremely insightful. and one of the things that i take from you is that you're a markets guy who thinks about macro, and not just u.s. macro, but global macro. what i don't get about what you're saying now -- one thing i get very much about what you're saying now is a small deal doesn't solve anything except the immediate cliff problem and that's not the only problem we have. it's actually relatively minor, i agree with you. but if we engage in $500 billion fiscal contraction next year i think we're going to have a recession. as a guy who pays attention to macro, how does that help anybody? >> well, look, i actually -- one of the reasons i said, and it was a provocation of saying, the fiscal cliff, after the election, my view of where this was going was exactly where we are this morning. which is probably why yo